Transition

Selected articles

 

History

 My interest in transition started when I served as junior consultant the Government of Angola in a United Nations funded project (Anghotel – Evaluation, terms of reference and regulation) aiming to evaluate some state-owned hotels for further privatisation. The project was undertaken by SND - Sociedade Nacional de Desenvolvimento during the 1992 peace spring. Missions to Benguela, Lobito, Huambo and Lubango.  I reurned to Angola some years later to evaluate the opportunity of creating a State-Owned agricultural development bank. The project was commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture of the People Republic of Angola and undertaken by GDS, Lda. 

CIS

In June 1996 I was invited by my PhD colleage, Rupinder Singh, to participate in a EC-TACIS project called Belarus Economic Trends. Rupinder was the Team Leader and Raul de Luzemberger the Senior Expert. The later was replaced in October 1997 by my good friend, Jorge Braga de Macedo . The main purpose of the project was to produce monthly bulletins with statistical data and economic analysis. My first contribution, Belarus – The Transition Path and the Way Forward, came out in September 1996. The project also entailed advice on economic policy issues to the Government of Belarus, involving meetings with senior Government officials and technical assistance to local staff. The project lasted until November 1998, with missions to Minsk, Grodna, Vitebsk, Gomel and Brest.
Reflecting our growing involvement with the transition question, Rupinder Singh and I created in 1996 the Centre for Economies in Transition (CETRAN). The centre aimed to be a forum for discussion of economic policy issues, involving specialists from academia, official bodies and other research centres interested in transition economics.

In April 1998, BET promoted a conference on Monetary and Exchange rate Developments at the Ministry of Economy of Belarus, to present Q1/98. Following Rupinder Singh, Jorge Braga de Macedo and Mr. Vlaskin (National Bank of Belarus), I addressed the monetary policy issues based on The March Foreign Exchange Crisis Analysed, giving rise to some interesting reactions (*). A second conference presenting Q2/98 took place in July 1998, with Vladimir Biriouk, Rupinder Singh, Jorge Braga de Macedo. I presented Forecasts for Belarus. Our last quartely bulletin was Q3/98.

(*) Probably we were part of that conspiration that Lukachenko accused of trying to destabilise the economy (Reuters report here). The fact is that one month later we detected a strange message in Rupinder's computer, signed by our new secretary, Nadia (copy here). We were convinced that she was ideed a spy and we dismissed her. She cried and argued that the message was written by someone else to incriminate her and the proof was that her name was misspelled (as you may check, the message is signed Nadya, not Nadia). We are still not sure whether she was or not a apie, but we learned two years later that her father was a former director of KGB! Nadya married a WB economist as is now living in the US. 

During the summer of 1998 CETRAN was running another EC-TACIS project, called Azerbaijan – Advice on the State Programme of Industrial Policy, with Rupinder as team leader. The aim was to advice the Ministry of Economy in developing a strategy for a medium-term industrial policy within the construction of an overall development plan. Within the scope of this project, the Deputy Minister of Economy, Mr.Oktai Hagverdiev came to Lisbon, to visit some Portuguese official bodies. During this visit, a conference took place in Universidade Independente (September 24), addressing the Azerbaijan Economic Policy. Jorge presented his Converging European Transitions. By the end of this project, in November 1998, I presented a communication at the Centre for Asiatic Studies, Universidade Independente, on Ten Years of Transition: the case of Azerbaijan.

EU- Enlargement

From September 1998 to May 1999 I served as consultant in a EC-PHARE project, called Slovenia – Liberalisation of Capital Movements, led by Jorge Braga de Macedo. The project involved advice on sequencing of reforms for liberalisation of capital movements. Within the scope of this project, a Slovenian delegation came to Lisbon, to visit the Portuguese supervisory authorities.
In March 2000, a conference called "EU enlargement and the euro" took place in UTAD – Universidade de Trás-os-montes e Alto Douro, with Pedro de Lima (ECB) and the Ambassador of Poland in Lisbon, Adam Halamski. I presented a communication addressing the implications of EU enlargmenet to the international role of the euro (a related article here).  

Between January and October 2000, I assisted the World Bank and the Bertelsmann Foundation in the organisation of the conference "Experiences of EU membership – lessons to be shared with the current EU candidates: examples of Portugal and Greece" [conference page here] that took place in Lisbon, in October 2000. The conference was in the scope of the project jointly developed by the World Bank and the Bertelsmann Foundation, called "Towards European Integration" [here]. The aim is to integrate economic and political research institutes and think tanks in the ten Central and Eastern European countries which have applied for membership in the European Union. The network acts as a forum for discussion on issues of political, social and economic reform linked to EU accession. The purpose to come up with practical ideas and proposals for the CEECs to make best use of the opportunities offered by EU membership.
 

 Between October 2000 and October 2001 I assitestd the Countdown project (EC INTERREG II/C), co-financed by the City of Vienna and the Federal Chancellery of Austria and run by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), with Jean Pierre Gomes (New University of Lisbon). Countdown was created with the intention to help fill the information and communication gap that prevails in this research field. The Countdown project is based on an international network of co-operating institutions in the associated countries and member countries of the EU. The aim of such co-operation is to establish and maintain, together with other research institutes from the European Union and Central and Eastern Europe online information on the European Union’s eastern enlargement.  Not surprisingly, this page became a major reference for those who are interested in transition issues, including research students, professionals and institutions.
In November 2002 a conference took place at Universidade de Aveiro, on "Inovation, EU Enlargement and Cohesion" , as part of the National Debate on "The Future of Europe", promoted by IEEI - Instituto de Estudos Estratégicos Internacionais, among others. Professor Bryan Ardy, from the South Bank University, London, presented "Enlargement and the EU budget: 10 years on". I addressed the role of governance on economic growth. Summary in Portugueese, here: [Conference page]. The proceeding conference took place at Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, in 7-8 Março 2003, where I presented the final Paper.